According to the international consulting company Nikoliers, according to the results of the first half of 2024, the leaders in terms of supply of retail space are Yekaterinburg (846 sq. m per 1,000 people), Krasnodar (785 sq. m per 1,000 people) and Samara (720 sq. m. per 1,000 people). . m per 1,000 people).
Photo: Stankovskaya V./Retail.ru
According to the results of the study, Ekaterinburg not only holds first place in terms of the provision of retail space among Russian cities with a population of over a million from 2021, but will also lead in terms of the projected increase in the supply of retail space in 2024–25. In 2025, the construction of the super-regional Zolotoy shopping center (GLA 138 thousand sq. m) is expected to be completed in Yekaterinburg, which will allow it to maintain its leading position and increase the supply indicator to 967 sq. m. m per 1,000 people.
Despite the fact that the TOP-3 leaders of the million-plus cities with the most retail space remained unchanged compared to 2023, their sequence has changed: Samara lost second place to Krasnodar, and this trend is likely to consolidate until the end of this year and continue in 2025 .
The reason is the implementation of five shopping centers in Krasnodar – the Lyubimovo Mall shopping center (27.8 thousand sq. m) and the Trilogy shopping center (5 thousand sq. m), which have already opened, as well as the Flotilia shopping center (10 thousand sq. m), shopping center "Syr" (10.5 thousand sq. m) and shopping center (3.8 thousand sq. m) between two residential districts "Samolet" and Dogma Park, which are announced for commissioning until completion 2024. If all these facilities are commissioned, the increase in the supply of retail space in Krasnodar by 2025 could reach +51 sq. m. m per 1,000 people. by the end of 2023. In Samara, during the same period of time, only one Tochka City shopping center (GLA 21 thousand sq. m) is expected to open in the Volgar residential complex, which will give an increase of only 18 sq. m. m per 1000 inhabitants.
“Over the past two years, the commissioning of shopping centers in Russia has been at a record low, which also affects the supply of retail space in Russian cities. In 2024-2025 the growth in construction activity will also be insignificant. Despite the fact that most of the shopping centers opened and announced for commissioning belong to the “district” and “district” formats, we see a few large objects announced . The incentive for opening shopping centers in the regions of Russia is also the active development of domestic fashion brands that are planning expansion into the regions, choosing the highest quality projects,” commented Anna Nikandrova, partner at Nikoliers.
The TOP 3 cities with a million population least supplied with retail space based on the results of the first half of 2024 also remain unchanged. In Volgograd this figure is 303 sq. m per 1,000 people, while in 2024–25. There are no new large or medium-sized shopping complexes announced for commissioning in the city. We observe a similar situation with the lack of new commissioning in 2024 in Omsk (309 sq. m per 1,000 people). In Perm, the district shopping center “Iskra” (GLA 7 thousand sq. m) is announced for opening this year; the opening of the shopping center “Soldatov” (GLA 6 thousand sq. m) is expected in 2025. Due to this, the supply of retail space in Perm should increase by 12 square meters in two years. m per 1,000 people. and amount to 317 sq. m per 1,000 people.
According to developers, the volume of retail space commissioned in Russia by the end of 2024 should be about 867.8 thousand square meters. m, however, taking into account possible transfers, according to Nikoliers estimates, new construction will not exceed 430 thousand sq. m. m. Moreover, even taking into account the adjusted figure, the volume of new projects in 2024 may exceed the 2023 figure by one and a half times. If all plans are actually implemented, the distribution of new supply could be as follows: 46.4% – Moscow region, 44.2% – regional cities and 9.4% – St. Petersburg agglomeration.
Based on statements from developers, the supply of retail space for 2024-2025. may increase in cities with a population of over a million:
- in cities with a population of over a million – by 704.4 thousand square meters. m;
- in cities with a population of 100–300 thousand people. – by 169.7 thousand sq. m;
- in cities with a population of 0.5–1 million people. – for 113 thousand sq. m;
- in cities with a population of less than 100 thousand people. — by 69.4 thousand sq. m;
- in cities with a population of 300–500 thousand people – by 67.7 thousand square meters. m.
According to Nikoliers, the average area of commissioned regional facilities announced by developers in 2024 will decrease by 7.7% compared to the results of 2023 and amount to 12.8 thousand square meters. m.
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