Reduction of forecast for grain and rapeseed harvests
Harvest results so far have been disappointing. Winter barley almost always failed to meet expectations. This affects both yields and their quality, said Guido Seedler, DRV grain market expert.
Water, sun and heat are needed to obtain optimal yields. Over the last few weeks, the last two factors important for photosynthesis and therefore the formation of crops have been missing.
Rapeseed yields are also below expectations. Due to variable weather conditions, it was unable to fully develop its yield potential. In this context, DRV lowered the harvest forecast by 0.5 million tonnes to 41.5 million tonnes of cereals and by 0.1 million tonnes to 3.8 million tonnes of rapeseed. These results are below the long-term average.
Harvesting work is interrupted
At the same time, harvest work turns out to be difficult. They are repeatedly interrupted by rainfall. Recent rainfall in southern Germany led to significant damage to cereals and rapeseed, Seedler explained.
The winter barley harvest has been completed in much of Germany, but in the north and at higher altitudes large quantities of the grain are still waiting to be harvested. In many regions of Germany, the rapeseed harvest is in full swing. The winter wheat harvest has also begun.
Poor results across Europe
The weather was and is the main problem in Europe this season. Challenges include heavy rains combined with flooding, as well as severe drought. Significant declines in harvest results are expected in France, Italy and Greece. The Black Sea region is also suffering from drought. In all other countries, results are expected to be at last year's level.
Only the grain corn harvest can be better than last year's. To develop its full yield potential, this culture needs moist and warm weather in July and August.
Results of the fifth forecast
According to the fifth DRV forecast, the grain harvest in Germany in 2024 should amount to:
- Winter wheat 19.483 million tons.
- Spring wheat 531.1 thousand tone.
- Rye 3.065 million tons.
- Winter barley 9.010 million tons.
- Spring barley 1.808 million tons.
- Corn 4.591 million tons.
- Oats 721.7 thousand tone.
- Triticale 1.828 million tons.
