- We talk about the growing season, forecasts for potato prices and harvest with Dr. Wojciech Nowacki, president of the Polish Potato Association, a long-time researcher at IHAR PIB, Jadwisin Branch.
In the conversation, Dr. Wojciech Nowacki repeatedly emphasizes that the potato market is very sensitive to any stimuli. It is very unstable. It behaves like a vegetable market. Therefore, it is difficult to predict with high probability what will happen in the coming months.
However, based on a conversation with an expert, we have collected some considerations on this topic that will certainly play a role this year.
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Underestimated potato cultivation area in 2024.
According to Dr. Nowacki, there is no doubt that the cultivated area has increased this year. The signals are different. According to preliminary estimates of the Central Statistical Office in Poland, the area of potato cultivation in our country amounted to approx. 200,000. ha. However, according to Eurostat it is 198 thousand. ha.
– In my opinion, because I observed the demand for seed potatoes, for seed potato material, regardless of whether it is certified or not, there is no doubt that the interest in growing potatoes has increased this year. I think this is due to two factors, due to disruptions in the cereal, corn and rapeseed markets and because of the price for tubers, which has become attractive in the eyes of farmers, says Dr. Nowacki.
As he adds, however, potato cultivation is in fact a specialized crop, requiring large investments and knowledge in the field of protection and cultivation.
According to Dr. Nowacki, the cultivation area did not increase significantly on large, professional farms, and the area increased on small farms, which usually had not grown potatoes for years. This is not a large area, but it is often not included in the estimates. For example, this data will not be captured by PIORIN, which registers entities cultivating potatoes on an area above 1.5 ha. In ARiMR, small farms (up to 10 ha) are not obliged to diversify crops, and these farms often started growing potatoes again. Some of such crops are also reported as "mixed crops", and this area will include the area of the home garden. The pool includes farms that do not submit land for subsidies, but this is not a significant percentage. Of course, these will be small areas, but these additional "areas" when counted may give some "hidden" area
– That's why I go a little further and believe that the area of edible potatoes in 2024 will be approximately 215,000 hectares – says Dr. Nowacki.
What are the expected potato yields in 2024?
It is difficult to state anything as certain here. The potato was planted early and emerged quickly. The seed potatoes were often not of good quality, which resulted in lower plant vigor. The heat allowed the plants to jump dynamically through development phases. The beetle quickly appeared on the plantations, and the generations overlapped. However, this is not a factor that significantly disturbs potato yield. Potato blight, which appeared very early, became a much greater threat and this fact could not have been noticed by less experienced growers. Therefore, neglected or poorly carried out protection may steal part of the crop.
Theoretically, drought was not detected in the IUNG-PIB reports in the case of potato cultivation. Dr. Nowacki does not entirely agree with this, because water shortages in many locations limited tuberization. The problem is that this year the rainfall is spot-like. In one district there may be plantations with a rainfall deficit and those where excess water after heavy rains washed out the ridges.
The problem of water deficit will again affect these small plantations, without access to irrigation. Professional growers know perfectly well that it is currently risky to grow potatoes without irrigation. Therefore, it is estimated that 20-30% of such producers have become independent from rainfall.
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However, as Dr. Nowacki notes, there is another important factor that currently disturbs the development of tubers. These are very high temperatures. When the heat exceeds 30 degrees Celsius, the temperature in the field can be as high as 40-45 degrees. The potato can't stand it. In such conditions it does not accumulate the crop well. So, according to the expert, this factor may have a greater impact than water deficit.
Unfortunately, most potato plantations dry out prematurely, which is the result of accelerated vegetation, high temperatures and the problem of late blight. So the excavations will be earlier than usual.
Forecasts regarding yields, according to Dr. Nowacki, are a guess at this stage, because a lot can still happen. Regional differences are also very large, so nothing can be stated as something constant.
However, he believes that average yields will be lower than last year. Of course, the yield largely depends on the farm's capabilities, but in his opinion, if a farmer obtains an average of 40-45 tons, then 35 t/ha is a realistic yield this year. But he emphasized that the potato develops tubers until the end, so it will only be possible to verify this after digging.
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Irrigation of potatoes. How to do it right?
To dig or not to dig? Supply shapes the market
Potato maintains its price, although young potatoes and those from the earliest varieties have been successively delivered to the market for a long time.
Wholesale prices respond to supply and demand. Currently, on the largest wholesale markets, they range from PLN 1.30 to occasionally PLN 2/kg. This is a decent price, says Dr. Nowacki. And he notes that increasingly often, especially young farmers, have learned to regulate this wholesale market on their own. When the price is high, they supply raw material, when it falls, they stop mining for some time. They don't want to exceed this excess supply over demand. The weather also matters here, if it rains and the fields are flooded, the digger won't come in either. And a young, unripe potato is not suitable for storage. This is a perishable item. Harvest is currently underway, so farmers are also not interested in digging the tubers in advance. These are the current factors affecting the supply of raw materials.
Dr. Nowacki believes that in the case of potatoes, not only the yield, but also when it can be sold and at what price determines the financial results of this crop.
Will there be a collapse of the potato market?
Dr. Nowacki is far from such pessimistic scenarios. He does not see any major factor distorting the price here. The price will definitely drop around the actual digging and will be regulated by the harvest and whether there will be a deficit like last year. And the market does not like such a situation, because it quickly equalizes in price and exports. The expert believes that the harvest will be at a good level, we are not at risk of a deficit or large overproduction. Therefore, he believes that the price should be stable. After all, the area has increased, but not significantly, and the yields are still uncertain. Retail prices in Western countries are high, so we should not be flooded with potatoes from these regions. Dr. Nowacki expects a harvest of 6-7 million tons. Last year it was below 6 million tonnes, and it was a deficit, hence the market reaction to it that the price for potatoes was high. As he adds, you can't count on coconuts, but the profitability of potatoes this year shouldn't be bad.
