Destatis: First Forecast
There are many harvest forecasts from associations and organizations – including governments. The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) has published its forecast for the first time this year. It estimates that the grain harvest is worse than many other crops, but still good. At first, this sounds contradictory, but is explained below. The stock market also seems to be looking for a direction.
It was previously reported that this year's harvest would probably remain below average. The forecast by German statisticians is surprisingly high: they expect a harvest of 36.4 million tons of grain, of which 18.9 million tons is to be winter wheat.
This is 2.3 million tons, or 11 percent less winter wheat than last year's harvest. If we also take into account spring and durum wheat, experts expect a total of 19.7 million tons of wheat
Smaller harvests, but higher yields
According to Destatis, the total grain harvest will probably be 4% lower than last year. Not bad, considering that, according to statistics, the area under cultivation has decreased by 5.7%. The only reason for the lower harvest estimate is the reduction in cultivation, not yield. Destatis estimates it at an average of 6.91 t/ha, 1.8% higher than in 2023. The next forecast is due at the end of August.