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Customs will block import fertilizers from the East? Not necessarily.

Cła zablokują import nawozów ze wschodu? Niekoniecznie
  • KE in the regulatory framework has proposed gradual increase of cels for nitrogenous fertilizers (urea, saletra ammonium, ammonium sulfate ) and multicomponent fertilizers (NPK, MAP, DAP), but also and mechanism thresholds quantitatively.
  • – Union farmers have not received any assurances, that the resulting from sanctions the disadvantage in the market will be compensated by increasing internal production, available at competitive prices. This is the key argument, which is used by supporters of introducing sanctions. This step will cause the prices of vehicles to increase by at least 40-45 euros per ton in the next crop season. This means another financial burden for farms, which already face highly difficult financial conditions. The consequences for agricultural production, the competitiveness of the sector and the income of farmers will be debilitating – assessed Copa Cogeca.
  • According Arkadiusz Zalewski of IERiGŻ PIB in Warsaw, who commented for farmer.pl situation, only the introduction of maximum tariffs on nitrogen and multicomponent from the Russian Federation and Republic of Belarus, which is planned for 1 July 2028 year. or then after exceeding the established limits in particular periods of application of increased duties, will cause radical or total stop imports from those directions. Pending what in the current year introduction of increased tariffs is unlikely to cause rapid declines in the domestic market, a consequence of strong increases in prices, when duties will be increased gradually.

We remind you, that already from 2023 year very intensely increased imports of ferries from Russia to Poland. The biennium can be recorded under this record. This threatened widely the production of ferries in Poland, because ferries from the east were cheaper and obviously also produced at significantly lower costs. Poland branch of cars in the first half of 2024 year. had requested the introduction of 30 proc. Already at that time counts were a major problem. Many were talking about it, but it was only in November of last year Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia submitted to the KE a joint letter on this issue. Now KE has started acting.

Duties on fertilizers. Proposals little ambitious

It turned out that as

commented on farmer.pl Szymon Domagalski, advisor ds. regulation at the Polish Island Chemical industry those proposals, especially in the initial period, are less ambitious than

postulated. But despite theall are compromise. Details on this topic are posted in the article below.

Expert about

customs on navos from Russia and Belarus. How will the market react ?

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Expert about clach na nawozy from Russia and Belarus. How will the market react ? Will prices go up

?

Well

it is pictured in the following tables. Because KE in the regulatory framework has proposed a gradual increase in costs on nitrogen

fertilizers (urea, saletra ammonium, ammonium sulfate ) and multicomponent fertilizers (NPK, MAP, DAP), but also and mechanism thresholds quantitatively.

Proposal target on fertilizers from Russia and Belarus, source Linkedin Szymon Domagalski Proposal

targets on fertilizers from Russia and Belarus, source Linkedin Szymon Domagalski

No less conclusions Domagalski

is that imports to the EU can still be profitable. And in the initial period of their operation may not even affect prices.

Thresholds quantitative for fertilizers, source: Linkedin Szymon Domagalski Thresholds quantitative for fertilizers, source: Linkedin Szymon Domagalski Introduction of the the biggest producer of fertilizers in Poland. In the Group this is good news. Vice President of Group Azoty Hubert Kamola said to PAP, that “the proposal determines a good direction of action and is an attempt to compromise between the industrial sector and agricultural. We are waiting for final decisions.”

How does the introduction of goals comment farmers?

Copa Cogeca – the organization of European farmers also has taken up this topic. Does not see it in optimistic colors. On the contrary, their opinion, the paradoxical position of the Commission, that is sanctions on theFertilizers threaten EU agriculture.

– On this same day, when the European Commission presented an compass for recovery of competitiveness, has also presented a proposal to impose sanctions on Russian and Belarusian navigators. This is a move, which will drastically affect the EU agricultural production and competitiveness sector. If there is no clear strategy for diversification, EU agricultural producers will be to the wall. EU produced fertilizers for years have not followed demand, which makes imports inevitable. This situation only has deteriorated after the closing of some production plants in the EU. Implementation of CBAM (pol. mechanism for adjustment of prices on borders with adjustment of emissions CO2) in the EU also will transfer to increase costs of both products produced in the community, as and those produced outside the EU, which go into the uniform market – read in the press Copa Cogeca.

They add that though they understand, that the action of the Commission results from reasonable geopolitical motives, that the agricultural sector will suffer economic impact of this decision.

– Union farmers have not received any assurances, that the resulting from sanctions the disadvantage in the market will be compensated by increasing internal production, available at competitive prices. This is the key argument, which is used by supporters of introducing sanctions. This step will cause the prices of vehicles to increase by at least 40-45 euros per ton in the next crop season. This means another financial burden for farms, which already face highly difficult financial conditions. The consequences on agricultural production, the competitiveness of the sector and the income of farmers will be debilitating – assessed Copa Cogeca.

As reported by representatives of the organization, the Commission’s proposal fails to meet the expectations of the EU farming community, is this in reference to high objectives, which will be imposed from July br., the gradual approach to sanctions or the proposed temporary suspension based on the price of 2024 , which are significantly higher than before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Even more concerned is the fact, that the Commission’s proposal does not include any medium or long-term measures, that would stabilize the situation in the sector, for example. by diversifying sources of supplies or the following mitigation measures:

  • Eliminating objectivesanti-dumping on import urea, salts ammonium and mixtures UAN originating from US and Trinidad and Tobago.
  • Suspension of conventional goals on import urea, UAN, DAP, MAP and NPK (codes 3102 10, 3102 80, 3105 30, 3105 40, and 3105 20 from nomenclature

    tariff).

  • Granting derogations in the framework of the nitrate directive for the purpose of allowing the use of processed

    animal feces (RENURE nitrogen recovered from manure and some products after-fermentation) exceeding outside the present limit 170 kg

    of nitrogen per hectare.

– Behind this complex issue hides one fundamental issue: the future of EU agriculture and food security EU. Copa and Cogeca are calling to member states and the European Parliament to take urgent action on this issue. We also count that the Commissioner for the EU is to take action on this issue. agriculture, Christophe Hansen, will take immediate action on this issue and propose concrete solutions, allowing to avoid another crisis in the agricultural sector, which now appears to be a very likely scenario – we read in the press Copa Cogeca.

Proposal KE ws. cele on fertilizers from East. Group Azotas comments

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Proposed KE ws. goals on ferrals from East. Group Azota comments

What prices ferrals after proposals introduce goals?

We on Tuesday 28 January 2025 year. we requested a loose comment from the Institute of Economics Agriculture and Food PIB on what prices of fertilizers can be expected in the next time. Then there was no yet this information about new regulations on ce. What was answered

– from beginning 2021 year. until September 2022 year, an observed systematic monthly increase in the national price market of mineral fertilizers. From October 2022 year. there has been a slowdown in price increases and a transformation of the growth trend in a declining trend. The declining trend, which was encouraged by increased imports of fertilizers in

this from countries

with lower production costs (such as for example Russia and Belarus), “flattened” the

production trend.became only in the II half of 2024. in associated with the increase in gas prices observed from the end of February 2024 year, which has begun to affect prices in the opposite direction. More however, as results from analyses of IERiGŻ PIB the average annual fertilizer prices were on average by 23.1 percent. lower year year. Faster does not mean only expensive. Fertilizers in 2024 year were average of 79 percent. more expensive than 4 years previously, that is in 2020 year, a then in the period when prices of vehicles were relatively low and stable. And how have changed in that time for example, the prices of cereals or milk? Wheat has become more expensive by 10.5 perc, rice o 6.5 proc, corn o 12.9 proc. a milk o 52.2 proc. – responded Arkadiusz Zalewski, chief engineering specialist of the Department of

Agricultural Markets and Quantitative Methods

of IERiGŻ PIB.

Source: IERiGŻ PIB Source: IERGŻ PIB

Has also referred directly to prices and has sent to us expressions on this issue.

W in my view further decrease in retail prices in the domestic market is rarely likely, even despite increased imports of fertilizers observed in 2024 year. In the nearest months prices are likely to moderately increase, a increase in prices may affect especially commodities gas because of expanding gas earth and increase costs of producing commodities gas (prices gas TF being the point of referral of prices gas for customers in the EU have increased since end February 2024 year. already over 2 times to about 48-50 EUR/MWh). Additionally the dynamics of price increases will depend on accumulation of purchases in the seasonal increase of demand. Additionally in the excluded case of increased tariffs on ferrals from Russia and Belarus the dynamics of increases may be increased, however it will be distributed in time – has reported to us on Tuesday Zalewski.

Source: IERiGŻ PIB Source: IERiGŻ PIB
There will increase prices of fertilizers and yes there will be, but scheduled in time. How has the situation changed after the proposal?Here there we also requested for expert commentary.

I suspect, that the introduction of increased customs on fertilizers imported from Russia and Belarus, which is likely to occur from 1 July br. probably will not cause rapid declines in the supply of fertilizers on the domestic market, a consequence of strong price increases, because tariffs will be increased gradually. From 1 July 2025 year, this is to be 40 EUR/t in the case of gas commodities and 45 EUR/t in the case of multicommodities. These duties will each year increase by 20 and 25 EUR/t respectively and only from 1 July 2028 year. will be raised to the maximum level of

430 euros/t in the case of multicomponent fertilizers and 315 euros in the case of nitrogen fertilizers. Additionally there will obviously still be

the existing customs in the rate of 6.5 proc. ad valorem. In my assessment only those maximum duties will causeimportsof fertilizersfromRussiaandBelarustostoppaying.However, it shouldbe noted,thatinPolandtheshareofvehiclesfromRussiaandBelarusintheimportstructurefromthirdcountriesisrelativelyhighonthetleofothercountriesEU,fromthisalsobecausetheintroductionofincreasedtariffsonferralsfromRussiaandBelarusmaybeonthePolishmarketmorediscerniblethaninothercountriesEU-.saidfarmer.plArkadiuszZalewskifromIERiGŻPIB.

InhisappraisalontheintroductionofmaximumtariffsonnitrogenandmulticomponentfromtheRussian FederationandRepublicofBelarus,whichisplannedon1July2028year.orthenafterexceedingtheestablishedlimitsinparticularperiodsofapplicationofincreasedduties,willcauseradicalortotalstopimportsfromthosedirections.

-Untilthistimeimportsoffertilizersfromthesecountrieswillprobablystillbeimplemented,butitalsowillgraduallydecrease,whichwillenableincreasingnativeproductionorincreasingimportsfromalternativedirections,aconsequencewillleadtodependenceofnationaloralsoEUagriculturalproductiononfertilizersfromRussiaandBelarus-Zalewski notes. 

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Russianfertilizersgoodtothetime.Onthehighthreatlosssafetyfarmersandconsumers.

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