A rise in the key rate leads to an increase in yields in financial markets, and also increases investor expectations for profitability in the commercial real estate sector, CORE.XP analysts write.
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Thus, capitalization rates for offices increased by 0.5 percentage points, to 10.50–11.50%, for warehouses by 1 percentage point, to 11.00%-12.00%. In the shopping center segment they increased by 0.5% p.p. and amounted to 11.50–12.50%.
Against the backdrop of a record first half of 2024, with total real estate investment growing by 17% y/y, where the warehouses (2.6 times y/y growth) and office (1.6 times y/y growth) sectors were the best performers, Based on the rise in the key rate, it is expected that investment transactions will be subject to additional pressure and risk of postponement until the start of the key rate reduction cycle.
“We believe that an increase in the key rate will have a negative effect on investment transactions before the start of the cycle to reduce it. At the same time, a strong market for end-user purchase and sale transactions remains , especially in the office segment, which can maintain the overall upward trend of investments in commercial real estate until the end of the year,” said Irina Ushakova, Senior Director, Head of Investment and Capital Markets Department at CORE.XP.
The expert also recalled that the first half of 2024 was a record in the history of real estate investments, reaching a volume of 386 billion rubles. and showing an increase of 17% from 2023 and 142% from 2022.
CORE.XP: office construction volumes have tripled compared to 2023.
