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Copa-Cogeca: a very poor year for EU cereal producers

Copa-Cogeca: bardzo słaby rok dla producentów zbóż w UE

Harvest estimates for cereals, oilseeds and protein crops

Both associations estimate the amount of cereals in 2024 at 257.3 million tons, i.e. 4.7%. less than in such a weak 2023. Oilseed harvests are to be 1.0% lower. and will amount to 31.9 million tons, and protein crops will increase from 13%. up to 3.9 million tons.

The worryingly poor forecast could be made even worse by weather events in the coming weeks and months, for example preventing work in the field. Delayed sowing resulted in sensitive crop development in many places.

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Three cereals below the 5-year average

In particular, Copa and Cogeca forecast worse results for the common wheat harvest by 6.4%. lower than last year, hard wheat by 5.7%. and barley by 9.3%. lower. All three grains also remain below the five-year average. Below long-term results and by 0.5 percent. corn harvest is expected to be worse than the year before. It is also forecast that millet sorghum production will decrease by 59.5%. Every year. The associations expect that compared to 2023, the harvest of rye (+2.1%), oats (+21.2%) and triticale (+5.1%) will increase.

Poorer cereal harvests in 2024 will translate into 1.2% lower yields per hectare and a 3.5% reduction in the cultivated area. From a regional perspective, northern countries such as Belgium, Germany, Denmark and Germany, as well as Central Europe, have even much weaker harvests – e.g. Poland by 3 million tons or France by 9 million tons less. This cannot be compensated by a significant increase in the Spanish harvest of 3 million tonnes.

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A slight decrease in the harvest of oilseeds – especially rapeseed

The associations' forecast says that the oilseed harvest will be relatively stable, with a 1.6% decrease. crop area, but yields from this area will improve slightly, by 0.7%. compared to 2023, although the five-year average was exceeded by 6.3%. First of all, the area and rapeseed yields decreased (-7.8%) – even compared to the average over the last five years.

However, compared to 2023, the harvest will be 9.7% lower. more sunflower seeds. By Member State, Spain expects an increase in oilseed harvest by 50%. compared to the exceptionally weak year 2023, while Poland expects an above-average decline in their production by 15%.

Except for France, where there was a risk of a 16% decline in harvests. Due to poor harvests, the situation in the case of high-protein crops is very positive, with expected harvests 13 percent lower. higher than last year, the coming weeks will remain crucial and the situation may change further.

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