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Consumption in 2025 year will increase by 3.5 percent.

Konsumpcja w 2025 roku wzrośnie o 3,5 proc.

We forecast, that in real consumption will increase in 2025 year by 3.5%, against increase by 3.3% in the next year. In the direction of decreasing rates of savings should affect the we have in the second half year of reducing percentage – says Marcin Kujawski, senior economist of Bank BNP Paribas.

In 2025 year. Poland will record a faster growth of National Product Brutal, but the economy will not show

the sign of overheating – estimate economists of Bank BNP Paribas.

This conquers inflation. Expert does have doubt

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This conquers inflation. Experts don’t have doubts

The main factor driving growth will be investment

Experts estimate, that in 2025 year. the value of produced goods and services will increase by 3.5%. Unfavorably the concern in the further stream will be affected by the foreign situation, in this weak condition of European industry and the likely tightening of trade policy by the States United States. The main factor driving growth will be investment, supported by increased spending of European funds.

Inflation CPI in 2025 year will average 4.3%

A team of economists Bank BNP Paribas has prepared forecasts for the current year. In 2025 year. experts expect that inflation CPI will average 4.3%, but in the second half year the dynamics of consumption prices should fall below 3.5% in comparison to the previous year. This means that inflation will close to the National Bank Poland target of 2.5%. Although economists consider that the scenario described by their macroeconomic scenario in full justifies the easing of monetary policy in Poland this year, that predicts, that building a majority in the Council of monetary policy in favor of such proposal will require time. In effect the first reduction of interest rates is expected only in July. Emerging return in economic policy US may negatively affect the currencies of countries Emerging Markets, however the foundations of gold remain relatively strong, which limits the risk of weakening PLN.

The international environment limits growth.economic in Poland

According to the latest forecasts of economists Bank BNP Paribas, the national economy will in the coming quarters grow at an rapid rate, but the scale of nutrition will remain limited. After increasing by 2.8% in the last year, in the current – Poland’s National British Product is to increase by 3.5%. A similar tempo of growth is to wait also in the future year.

– In this year we expect more “spring warming” than “summer slumps” in the Polish economy. Although we forecast an increase in activity, we do not see the risk of it failing. The foreign structure remains moderate, a particularly weak performing European industry, which has a important impact on domestic exports. Additionally, the possible implementation of the new American administration may determine international trade. Although Poland is not directly strongly dependent on demand from the United States, this resulting from the tightening of trade policy the US negative shock to the world economy will not be indifferent also to native producers – says Michal Dybula, head economist of Bank BNP Paribas.

Analysts indicate, that a sure promise hope, if this is about the economic situation in the euro zone is the conducted by the European Bank Central cycle of monetary policy.

According to experts Bank BNP Paribas, outside the international environment, the key impact on the macroeconomic situation in Poland this year will have the impact and spending of European funds and the gaining momentum of wage dynamics.

One of the sectors, which should benefit most from the influx of EU funds is construction

– we expect, that after record last year, when to Poland from Brussels in the Policy Cohesion and National Reconstruction Plan (KPO) took funds of the value of over 21 billion euros, in this year the transfer amount will be even more and will be about. 27 billion euros. In our opinion, the support received last year will help what in limited degree the economy. This affects especially the money from PPO. We estimate that actual payments of money to beneficiaries were in the last year about 8-10 billion PLN. Bearing in consideration, that under the program until mid December 2024 year. contracts have been concluded with beneficiaries for over 41 billion £, and the acquisitions have already taken over 90% of allocated to Poland.Funds expect that funded from KPO projects will start in the next months strongly to go. There should also begin investments financed from the regular EU budget. In effect we estimate that in the full year the gross expenditures on fixed measures will increase in real by 9% year and  take over the role of the main engine of the national economy – explains Tomasz Tyc, senior economist of Bank BNP Paribas.

One of the sectors, which should benefit most from the influx of EU funds is construction. Although today European funds are less focused on road investments, this significant investment in rail and energy infrastructure should also favorably affect the activity of companies from the industry. This should also have positive impact on other sectors particularly industry.

– What is today, branches, which provide services and/or materials for construction, does expect an increase in sales or portfolio of orders, that we think that the situation will change over the year. Among departments of industry for which the construction sector is a key customer and which may benefit from improving the situation of the sector we can replace for example. manufacturers of products from other raw non-metallic materials or makers of products from rubber and plastics artificial – adds Tomasz Tyc.

There is an expected lower tempo of increasing wages

At the same time analysts expect that in the coming months the dynamics of wages will slow down. The lower tempo of increase in this year will to a large degree be related to lower than in the previous years the minimum wage. Bound wage pressure in the economy will also be m.in the reduced scale of increases in “budget” and moderate economic conditions, which should not cause tensions in the labor market. In effect the average wage in the national economy after increasing by nearly 14% in the last year, in the current year will increase by only 8%. The lower tempo of growth wages does not necessarily have to be associated with a decrease in dynamics of consumption.

– In last year we expected a significant decline in consumption of households. O how much in the first half of 2024 year. consumption expenditures actually grew at a rate close to 5% year/year, in the third quarter there was a pronounced and unexpected deceleration of purchasing activity. Weakening demand consumption in summer.We explain with further increase in savings rate, which can be related to rebuilding the financial cushion after period of high inflation. With the assumption that the savings rate of households will drop to 6% from about 7% in 2024 year, we forecast, that in the real consumption will increase in this year by 3.5%, against increase by 3.3% in the last year. In the direction of decreasing rates of savings should affect our planned in the second half year of percentage – explains Marcin Kujawski, senior economist of Bank BNP Paribas.

In the second half of the year inflation in the path of the NBP

According to forecasts of Bank BNP Paribas inflation CPI on average will in th year 4,3%, however in the second half year the dynamics of consumption prices should fall below 3.5% year/year that is. the upper border of divergence from the 2.5% inflation target of the National Bank of Poland. In the future year the tempo of increase in prices should already be close to the central bank target.

In the next months the price of food will increase, and in March br. prices of food products may be by 7%higherthanbeforeyear.Inthedirectionofthedynamicsofpricesovertheyearshouldbeaffectedbylowerdynamicsofwagesandtheconjunctural situation.

-We estimate,thatwithourexpected3.5%growthofGDP,resultingfromdemandpressureongrowthpriceswillrelativelyweak.We expecttherefore,thatbaseinflationwilloverthisyearsystematicallyrelax.ThefinalshapepathofinflationCPIwillhavea significantimpactonpricesofenergy.AnouncedbytheOfficeofEnergyRegulationtheincreaseby24.7%oftariffsfordistributionofgaswillincreasethedynamicsofpricesintheearbyabout0.2pp.Inthebaselinescenariowe assume,thattheapplicationofzeroratepowerchargeswillbeextendeduntiltheendofthecurrentyear.Inthe eventthatithasbeenreimbursedonaccountsforcurrentinaccordancewiththecurrentregulationsinJuly,thisfeecouldincreaseinflationinthesecondhalfofthecurrentyearbyabout.0.3pp.- points outMarcinKujawski.

Thefirstreductionofpercentage ratesislikelyinJuly

Expertshave maintainedtheirforecastofpercentage ratesoftheNationalBankPolandthink,thattheMonetaryPolicyCouncilwillbeginacycleofinterestratesinJulybr.

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