Egg purchase prices in the EU have remained elevated in recent quarters. This is due to the still limited supply of eggs on the EU market, despite the continued high profitability of their production, as indicated by analysts from Credit Agricole in the latest AGROmap.
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The supply of eggs in the EU is decreasing despite the high profitability of their production
According to analysts, this is largely the result of the transformation of the egg production sector among some of the major EU egg producers, particularly in Germany, consisting in replacing cage farming with cage-free farming.
“For this reason, we maintain our assessment that the scope for a strong decline in egg purchase prices in the coming quarters is limited,” the authors of the report note.
There is no indication of a significant drop in egg prices
According to the data presented in agromap, in the period from January to April 2024, the value of Polish egg exports decreased by 19.6% y/y, compared to an increase of 63.3% in the same period of 2023, which was primarily the result of lower prices obtained by exporters.
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Deterioration in the profitability of egg production on an annual basis
The authors of the report noted that the purchase price of class M eggs in July was PLN 38.78/100 (-24.9% y/y), and the price of feed for layers was PLN 1.44/kg (-10.8% y/y). As a result, in April the price ratio of 100 eggs/feed was PLN 26.89 compared to PLN 31.95 a year ago, indicating a deterioration in the profitability of egg production on a yearly basis.
Egg purchase prices – forecast for 2024 and 2025
"Taking into account the prospects of the situation on the EU and domestic egg markets, we forecast that the purchase price of class M eggs at the end of 2024 will amount to approx. PLN 48/100 pieces and approx. PLN 52/100 pieces at the end of 2025," the analysts emphasize.
The main risk factors for their egg price forecast are the course of bird flu in the next season in Europe, as well as the pace of supply growth among the largest egg producers, the report’s authors point out.
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