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Salaries in companies are up, employment is down
Research by the Polish Institute of Economics (PIE) as part of the Monthly Economic Index (MIK) shows that the vast majority of enterprises want to keep employment at an unchanged level. The share of companies that planned to lay off employees in the following months of 2024 did not exceed 10%. and was smaller than the percentage of enterprises planning to employ new employees (approx. 15%).
In the next three months (July-September), the vast majority of entrepreneurs (79%) do not plan any changes in employment. In the last July reading of the MIK, declarations of employing new employees concern 13%, and dismissing only 8%. surveyed companies. Recruitment plans vary slightly depending on the industry.
In trade, we observe a balance between the share of enterprises wanting to employ (8%) and lay off (9%) employees. However, both percentages do not exceed 10 percent, which indicates that the vast majority of commercial companies (83 percent) do not want to change the level of employment. Despite declines in sales value and the number of orders recorded by some trading companies, many trading companies maintain very good financial liquidity – as many as 64% of enterprises estimate that they have sufficient financial resources to operate for more than 3 months.
The service industry is the least likely to lay off – only 2%. companies are planning employment reductions. In service companies, as much as 87 percent enterprises want to keep employment unchanged, and more than one in ten companies (11%) plan to employ new employees. Service companies achieve better sales results in the summer season. In services, we currently have more companies with a m/m increase in sales value (21%) than with a decrease (17%).
We observe more plans to hire than to lay off employees in the TSL industry . More than one in ten companies (11%) plan recruitment, and 7%. layoffs of employees. Even though for 76 percent For companies from the TSL sector, employee costs are a barrier that significantly hinders operations, accounting for over 80 percent. companies do not want to make staff changes.
The desire to employ new employees is most visible in the construction industry . Nearly every fifth construction company plans to hire employees in the next three months, while only 6% are thinking about layoffs. companies. Every fourth construction company indicates that production capacity is too low considering the existing order portfolio and changes in demand expected for the next month. Hence, there is a great need to employ new employees in construction companies.
Most often, the manufacturing industry plans to lay off employees (18%), although a fairly large percentage of manufacturing enterprises (13%) indicate plans to hire new employees. The tendency of nearly every fifth manufacturing company to lay off employees may result from the fact that every third company in this industry recorded a m/m decline in the number of new orders in June, which translated into the currently observed large percentage of manufacturing companies (22%) with too large production capacity, including excess workers.
"The decreasing number of professionally active people and the low unemployment rate mean that entrepreneurs want, above all, to maintain the level of employment. And although for 70 percent of enterprises employee costs are a barrier that significantly hinders their activity, at the same time almost half of the enterprises (48 percent) complain about shortages. employees. This situation indicates that the risk of a significant increase in unemployment is low," PIE estimates.
