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China on way to record production ofgrain

Chiny na drodze do rekordowej produkcji zboża

Growth over crop and higher yields

FAS forecasts, that grain production in China will reach 706.5 million tons, which is an increase of 1.6 percent. in comparison with the previous year, due to increased areal crops and higher yields. FAS informed, that it expects that all the three major grain species will reach increased production.

Increased use of feed and industrial commodity

China National Bureau Statistics forecasts 2 progress. increase in corn production year to year to 294.9 million tons, supported by increased seeding of varieties with high performance. FAS informed however, that industry estimates vary from 280 million to 293 million ton. FAS believes that effective production of corn is lower than official, because of some industry reports about serious problems in the new commodity

Record low prices of commodity until end 2024 year. encouraged the use of corn in China’s domestic feed and industrial sectors. FAS noted, that it is projected that feed and residual use of cereals will increase significantly to 287,2 million tons, reflecting increased use of corn in feed mixes due to lower prices. This change reduces dependence on wheat and rice as forage components.

More wheat and rice

It is estimated that wheat production will increase by 2.6 perc. year to the year to 140.1 million tons due to improved plants in comparison with the low base of the last year.

The industry reported, that the quality of wheat was good, but supplies of good quality wheat with high protein value were limited, a wheat from Southern Henan and Northern Hubei had higher toxin values.

China, which is the largest producer of wheat and rice in the world, is expected to significantly increase rice production in the season 2024/2025 to 145.3 million tons.

Decline imports

From the perspective of trade grain the most noteworthy event is the projected 40 pc. decrease import of corn and 37 percent decrease of wheat consumption.

FAS forecasts strategic decrease import of corn (from 23,4 million) to 14 million tons in the government policy to protect national farmers in combined with efforts to diversify suppliers of corn, which results in a greater quantity of

currency originating from South America.”

According to FAS, the sharp decline in theImports of wheat result from strong domestic production and

weak demand, though trade with Argentina is expanding.

 

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