The overall median market value indicators of the Baltic Exchange representatives under review (the vast majority of stocks have fallen this year), even despite the lower liquidity and higher risk, remain extremely low, indicating an appropriate undervaluation.
We emphasize that both changes in income (abbreviation Paj in the table) and changes in EBITDA profits (abbreviation EBD in the table) are calculated on the basis of official financial reports submitted by Baltic companies. As usual, we present EBITDA margins (EM% in the table) and return on assets (ROA%) and the latest relative financial indicators of market value.
At the same time, we draw attention to the fact that among the reviewed companies, those with asterisks in the table of names do not publish their quarterly reports or only provide incomplete information.
Looking at the table, we can see that compared to the first three months of 2023, the overall median of changes in income decreased in percentage terms, while in the case of EBITDA profits – it increased (as in the case of Latvia, by the way). The increase in the median of changes in performance results was recorded only among industrial companies and representatives of our country.
Among the companies featured in this review, during the first quarter of this year, our country's representative Vilniaus baldai, Estonian construction company Nordecon, frozen products manufacturer PRFoods and NEO Finance, operating in the financial sector, increased their revenues and profits the most. Meanwhile, the results of clothing designer and tailor Utena's knitwear and media group Ekspress Grupp's performance shrank most noticeably.
As usual, we have calculated and present to you the EBITDA profitability indicators of the representatives of the Baltic Exchange in question. Compared to the first quarter of 2023, overall median margins have increased, as, by the way, in all other calculated cases, which is, of course, a positive phenomenon. The mentioned profitability index increased during the comparable period, while only six recorded a decrease. This time, EfTEN Real Estate Fund and KN Energies can boast the largest quarterly margins, while the EBITDA profitability of such companies as Arco Vara, SAF Tehnika, Snaigė and Utena knitwear was negative.
As for return on assets, or ROA, its overall median was unchanged, while the industry and Latvians, although negative, declined, while Estonia's negative median remained unchanged. Among the representatives of our country, the median ROA grew. Thirteen companies recorded an increase in return on assets compared to the first quarter of last year, while eleven companies recorded a decrease. Latvijas Gaze, Infortar, Kauno energija and Silvano Fashion Group stood out with the highest ROA indicators in the last quarter. On the other hand, this time even eleven companies had a negative return on assets.
Looking at the most recent market value figures provided, we see that they continue to remain extremely low. So we can say that the shares of the analyzed companies are currently too undervalued, which is partly related to lower liquidity and higher risk. The representatives of our country stand out with the lowest P/E, P/BV, P/S and EV/EBITDA market value median indicators.
Since the beginning of 2024, the market value of eighteen has risen, while twenty-six have fallen. So it is not surprising that the overall median of stock price changes is negative. Last year, the mentioned median was also with a minus sign and the ratio of expensive/cheap shares reached 10 and 37, respectively. As we can see, this year only the median of the changes in the prices of Lithuanian representatives is positive, and the largest negative percentage is recorded in the case of Latvia.
Among the reviewed representatives of the Baltic stock exchanges, the market value of the investment company Infortar grew the most this year. In addition, the shares of INVL Technology, INDEXO and Airobot Technologies rose more noticeably. Meanwhile, the capitalization of PRFoods, Punktid Technologies, ELMO Rent and APF Holdings shrank the most.
The OMX Vilnius GI index has been growing for the third month in a row and has almost reached its pre-correction peak, after which its further direction will become clear.
Meanwhile, the OMX Tallinn GI index is consolidating for a regular month in a row.
The OMX Riga GI index broke out of the growth channel through the lower part and we saw a further decline in it, which continues.
After a period of growth, Infortar shares are currently in a horizontal – consolidation phase.
INVL Technology's share price has been rising for the third month in a row after the correction.
PRFoods share price has broken out of the bearish channel through the lower part and continues to search unsuccessfully for a solid bottom.
Nordecon's share price remains in a long-term downtrend, although it has been consolidating over the past few months.
Pieno Zviigždžiai's share price is currently in a correction phase after a period of growth.
The share price of Vilnius Furniture fell below the growth trend line, and now we have tested the sustainability of this movement, after which the further direction will become clear. If you manage to get back above the rising trend line, then the growth has started, otherwise, a bigger correction awaits.
The share price of K2 LT continues to remain in the horizontal – consolidation phase.
Arco Vara's share price is currently in a new downward phase after a period of consolidation.
The MADARA Cosmetics share price continues to remain in the falling channel, from which the attempt to break out was unsuccessful again.
The share price of Ekspress Grupp continues to remain in the falling phase.
The share price of Silvano Fashion Group has been in a horizontal – consolidation phase for more than a year and has changed very little.
Nordic Fibreboard's share price has risen for two months in a row, and is currently testing a downtrend line. If you manage to rise above it sustainably, then the rebound has started.
The share price of SAF Tehnika continues to remain in the falling phase.
The share price of Invalda INVL is trying to start a new phase of growth after the correction-consolidation period. Whether this is a sustainable phenomenon remains to be seen.
The share price of Panevėžys Construction Trust continues to remain in a long-term falling phase. True, it has been consolidating lately.
Author: TI
