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An embargo on Russian LPG is coming. Will LPG prices at stations go up?

Nadchodzi embargo na rosyjskie LPG. Ceny LPG na stacjach poszybują w górę?
  • The entire LPG market in Poland is approximately 2.5 million tons per year, of which only approximately 1/5 comes from domestic production. The remaining 4/5 are imported and, unfortunately, mainly from the eastern market.
  • The situation in the case of LPG is special because Poland is the largest importer of Russian gas in the entire European Union. In 2022, Poland paid as much as EUR 710 million for imports of LPG from Russia, which constituted almost 2/3 of all Russian exports of liquefied gas to the entire European Union.
  • Should we prepare for an explosion in LPG prices at the end of 2024? Probably not, because the embargo on LPG was not introduced immediately after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, as was the case with coal, or even two years later – emphasize PIGSW experts.
  • The LPG industry was given a period of almost 3 years to prepare for the introduction of the embargo and could use this period to change import directions, strengthen logistic chains and invest in infrastructure.

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According to representatives of PIGSW, the entire LPG market in Poland is approximately 2.5 million tons per year, of which only approximately 1/5 comes from domestic production. The remaining 4/5 are imported and, unfortunately, mainly from the eastern market.

Many people in Poland today are asking themselves how this will affect the availability and prices of LPG in Poland, knowing what happened to the prices and availability of coal after the embargo on this raw material was introduced in 2022 – emphasize representatives of PIGSW.

Poland is the largest importer of Russian LPG

The situation in the case of LPG is special because Poland is the largest importer of Russian gas in the entire European Union. In 2022, Poland paid as much as EUR 710 million for imports of LPG from Russia, which constituted almost 2/3 of all Russian exports of liquefied gas to the entire European Union.

– On April 15, 2022, an embargo on coal imported from Russia was introduced in Poland, which had disastrous consequences for the entire coal market in Poland, millions of Poles heating with this fuel and thousands of companies from the coal industry – emphasize representatives of PIGSW.

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As PIGSW experts emphasize, the hastily introduced embargo led to a supply shock on the coal market in Poland, huge shortages of fuel coal and gigantic increases in its prices.

As a consequence, the then government of Mateusz Morawiecki tried to save the situation by importing huge amounts of coal by sea and distributing it with the help of local governments. The consequences were also disastrous, as it led to a situation in which the market was flooded with huge amounts of fine coal, which remain in dumps to this day, and after the stabilization of the coal market in Poland, dozens of local governments were left with the problem of expensive and poor quality coal, which they could not cope with. we knew what to do – emphasize the representatives of PIGSW. – Those of you who regularly follow our profile know this story very well, because we informed about what was happening on the coal market on an ongoing basis, and we informed many times about the disastrous consequences of the too hastily introduced embargo.

Will the LPG market be similar to the coal and eco-pea coal markets in 2022? Should we prepare for an explosion in LPG prices at the end of 2024?

Probably not, because the embargo on LPG was not introduced immediately after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, as was the case with coal, or even two years later – emphasize PIGSW experts.

The LPG industry was given a period of almost 3 years to prepare for the introduction of the embargo and could use this period to change import directions, strengthen logistic chains and invest in infrastructure.

As reported by WNP.pl – "The largest players in the market started preparing for this revolution much earlier." As an example, the portal cites the activities of Unimot, which is one of the main LPG sellers in Poland.

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As part of preparations for the change in the direction of LPG imports, Unimot rented an LPG reloading terminal in Germany, took over the Olavion railway company to improve the process of rail transport from the west, and took actions to prepare it for the reorientation of the LPG market from East to West at the final stage of the chain deliveries carried out by road.

Large players such as Unimot had time to properly prepare for the embargo, which should largely protect the LPG market in Poland from the kind of disaster experienced by the coal market, which was not given almost 3 years to prepare, but was cut off from directions of import from the East – emphasize PIGSW experts. – If the coal market had been treated in the same way and the embargo had been introduced in advance and without causing a supply shock, there would have been no energy crisis on the fuel coal market, there would have been no crazy prices, there would have been no need for government intervention, there would have been no gigantic coal imports and excess coal fines. on the market, which is now strangling the Polish mining industry…

Or maybe that was the point? Maybe the government of that time consciously started a fire, which it later heroically extinguished itself?

We feel the effects of this fire to this day, it was felt in the pockets of millions of Poles, it was felt by hundreds of companies that went bankrupt, it was felt by local governments that were forced to be coal sellers, and it is felt today by the mining industry "buried" by millions of tons of fine coal imported to Poland by sea – they sum up PIGSW experts.

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