Yesterday, SEB and Swedbank published their economic forecasts. In particular, they contain a warning that inflation will increase due to the state's tax policy. RusDelfi spoke with economist Raivo Vare about how the government's decision will affect the recovery of the national economy, what the current situation is in our neighbors – Sweden and Finland – and when the most favorable period for large purchases will begin. According to the forecast published yesterday by SEB bank, in 2026 the economy is expected to grow by 2.7 percent, which is close to the long-term growth potential of the Estonian economy. According to the Swedbank report, the national economy will recover to the pre-crisis level only by the beginning of 2027, and changes in the tax system will accelerate inflation in 2025 to 4.4%. If we look at what our analysts say in general – both central bank, government and commercial bank – then there is hope that in this half-year we have finally reached the bottom in economic terms and now the economy will gradually recover. However, we cannot yet speak about this with 100% certainty. According to economist Raivo Vare, what we are seeing now is something unique in its own way, something like this has never happened in Estonia before.
