Yesterday, July 10, 2024, during the press conference of the Ministers of Agriculture, Deputy Minister Michał Kołodziejczak announced that the team for monitoring agricultural markets has just started its work. For now, in the cereal area, but these activities will probably expand to other markets.
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We have written more than once that we do not have full information on the level of national grain stocks, and those presented by public institutions compared to analysts from the private sector were very different. Suffice it to say that former minister Henryk Kowalczyk also stumbled on the grain price forecast in 2022. After the harvest, it was supposed to be more expensive, and the collapse in price lists was deepening from month to month. Those who then incorporated these announcements into their business plans probably regret it to this day. But something new is coming. The monitoring team at the Ministry of Agriculture is launched to report, share knowledge and send alerts to the public space on topics important to the market and emergency situations.
As Deputy Minister Kołodziejczak said yesterday:
At the moment, the team will mainly focus on monitoring everything related to harvest and yields. We are checking carefully the yield of cereals, which have already started harvesting. We will collect data at the Ministry of Agriculture with the help of institutions that fall under the Ministry of Agriculture.
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Team composition and first information from the grain market
The minister enumerated that the team also includes representatives of KOWR, IERGiŻ, Elewarru, employees of relevant departments of the ministry, and there will also be very close cooperation with ODRs. All this so that the Ministry of Agriculture has full, up-to-date information on harvests, sales and, possibly, grain stocks. The minister added that the import, export and transit of grain through Poland will also be monitored.
– So that our farmers and Minister Czesław Siekierski and other deputy ministers have accurate information about what is happening on world markets, just as today, for example, the lowest yields in Russia are predicted, by about 10 million tons. When it comes to wheat, Russia is a large wheat producer and everyone will be able to analyze how such a harvest in Russia will affect the market. Russia will most likely export several percent fewer tons of wheat to world markets. 14%, lower grain harvests in general in Ukraine, which will certainly have an impact on world markets, but also what is happening in Western Europe, 7 million tons lower wheat harvests in France. This is the first data that we are already collecting. We will analyze them and present them in greater detail, so that there is a full overview of the situation and everyone can draw conclusions.
Alerting about dangerous signals
– The main task of the team that started its work today will also be to alert about such dangerous signals that may come from somewhere and may affect what is happening on the market. So that farmers and the Ministry of Agriculture have this information in the first place about what may cause certain fluctuations on the market. Here we are actually changing the standard of work in the Ministry of Agriculture, something that has not existed before. We are starting with the grain market and we will try to expand other markets in due time, so that the information here is clear, reliable and appropriate for work planning, i.e. appropriate analysis and forecasting of what may happen – noted Kołodziejczak.
How to collect reliable data on grain stocks?
– So far, no one in Poland has bothered to check grain stocks. We will try to do it in different ways. Institutions also received guidelines on what additional actions they can take. So that the minister has the best information about stocks, yields, harvests and forecasts in the world. We will present a detailed analysis on an ongoing basis, added Kołodziejczak.
Will purchase centers be obliged to report to the Ministry of Information?
– We will hold extensive talks, and there will also be close cooperation with Elewar. We will also try to cooperate with analysts as widely as possible to compare this knowledge and forecasts with their information. And here the involvement of farmers in collecting data on stocks is not an act against them, but so that we have information about how much cereal we have. To adapt the appropriate policy of the Ministry of Agriculture and the government to what is happening on the market – added Michał Kołodziejczak at the end of the meeting.
