Konrad Hanschmidt, one of the founders of Gridio, a startup that harmonizes energy consumption, recommends choosing a fixed-price package ahead of the heating season. This advice should be ignored by larger consumers who have an electric car or a home battery. /nginx/o/2024/09/25/16378603t1heb04.jpg)
Konrad Hanschmidt, one of the founders of Gridio. Photo: Mihkel Maripuu / Postimees
Konrad Hanschmidt, one of the founders of Gridio, a startup that harmonizes energy consumption, recommends choosing a fixed-price package ahead of the heating season. This advice should be ignored by larger consumers who have an electric car or a home battery.
"The main reason is the warning from the Finnish grid operator Fingrid that this coming winter the electricity deficit in Finland on a cold and windless day will be 3,000 MW (or twice as much as in Estonia) compared to 1,500 MW last year," Hanschmidt says.
Last year, Finland had about three such days in early January (January 3–5) when temperatures dropped to almost -30 degrees Celsius and consumption was forecast at 15,000 MW. At the same time, some power plants also failed, and by the third day, electricity prices had risen to €1,896/MWh (daily average €900/MWh), Hanschmidt notes.
"While this is supposedly a 1-in-13-year frost, I pragmatically assume that similar weather conditions could happen again, and perhaps last a little longer," he writes.
In such cold weather, Fingrid assumes that Finland will import a maximum of 1,000 MW from Estonia (or a quarter of the Baltic electricity) and another 2,400 MW from Sweden (where it will have almost no effect). This coming winter, Fingrid predicts, there will be 800 MW fewer power plants available (in fact, I think 300 MW), so it is quite possible that the price in Finland and, accordingly, in Estonia, will rise even higher than 1,896 EUR/MWh. This is about 10 times higher than the normal winter price, so the bill for one day can easily be compared with the bill for ten days.
"Although probability theory says that such a scenario is unlikely, we have seen that substations and cables are currently having bad karma, so I consider the risk to be realistic. If it doesn't happen, then great, and family and friends will pay maybe 10-15 percent more for a fixed package, but if the frost lasts even longer, €4,000/MWh (the possible maximum) could cause electricity bills to skyrocket," Hanschmidt notes.
You can always return to the stock market package in March, Hanschmidt adds.
